Roger Caiazza provides an excellent illustration of the capacity factor problem that neither wind nor solar are able to overcome. Empire Stateenergy security is gradually fizzling.
So, assuming no policy change in SA, when will this disaster happen?
Putting my cards on the table, I'm confident SA can get to 90 per cent renewable on average by 2027. Maybe a bit of gas and diesel backup at night, but so what?
So they will still depend on coal power from Victoria to avoid blackouts, and then what happens when Victoria is running on 90% RE and there is a severe wind drought across SE Australia for two or three days and nights?
"No jurisdiction anywhere has successfully demonstrated an electric grid that depends on wind and solar to the extent that the Scoping Plan does."
The author apparently hasn't heard of South Australia, which averages over 70% solar/wind, a number that is steadily increasing. No hydro or nuclear, no net imports, and only limited interconnections. Batteries for grid stability, inertia etc
Routinely runs at 100 per cent solar/wind, or more.
SA was among the first jurisdictions to install a big battery, initially for the network stability problems mentioned in the OP, but now used to store daytime solar and discharge in early evening. Here's a link
19 nights out of 20 South Australia is burning gas and importing coal power from next door in Victoria. They have a great deal of solar in the day but for some strange reason there is none between sunset and sunrise and precious little for some hours after sunrise and and before sunset.
During a recent wind drought they were burning diesel as well as gas.
I have crossed swords my countryman John Quiggin many times in the past. As an economist you would expect him to be better with numbers:)
At the moment, on a sunny but rather still afternoon, they are importing power and the wind is generating about 10% of their demand. Look at this very handy live display and see the picture when the sun goes down.
To clarify, unsubsidised wind and solar off the grid are ok, and unsubsidised rooftop solar as well , provided that it does not feed back into the grid to destabilize it.
The claim in the OP was that no jurisdiction has relied as much on renewables as NY plans to do. My reading was that it allowed some gas etc. So, the fact that there is a small and declining amount of gas and diesel left in the SA system doesn't help the OP claim.
If you are really worried about late night demand, put the price up and see what happens. It's called market forces.
As a student of wind droughts I wonder why there is so much talk about average CFs.
It is the wind droughts that make the green transition impossible, and it is a great shame that the meteorologists never issued wind drought warnings.
Independent observers in Australia documented the fatal flaw in the wind power system over a decade ago but even in Australia nobody in authority took any notice until very recently.
Yes, averages won't be much consolation if we have a prolonged wind drought as has happened on some historical occasions. I've read about low wind periods as long as 10 years, but just 5 or 6 days could be rather disastrous if it leads to blackouts.
Overnight in Australia coal provides nearly 80% of demand and a single windless night without coal cannot be met by any feasible or affordable form of storage. Our severe wind droughts can last up to three days and nights on the records of the last 16 years.
We generate 1% of the world's emissions, the same as Britain, so what is the point of reducing them while China and the developing world are pressing onwards and upwards?
Moreover on the climate science side, the warming and extra CO2 of modern times have been beneficial, there is no reason to regard CO2 as a significant driver of warming and there is no sign of accelerating warming, possibly the reverse. There are hiccups like big El Ninos and the big volcanic explosion in the Pacific that spiked warming in the N hemisphere after a lag period.
Based on the statistics shown in the article, the NYSERDA Integration Analysis (NIA) suffers from many significant problems. It falsely diminishes the capacity factors for dispatchable electricity generators such as nuclear and natural gas while exaggerating the capabilities of inherently-intermittent solar and wind. There is an additional power system requirement for sufficient synchronous grid inertia to assure grid stability. https://greennuke.substack.com/p/why-is-grid-inertia-important. I recommend that the NIA be scrapped and replaced with an analysis free of ideological bias. I lived in New York state from 1973-1986. Polar vortices with inadequate reliable power is a prescription for large numbers of fatalities. Humans are warm-blooded. At least five times as many humans die from extreme cold as die from being too hot.
Polar vortices are long-duration large-area cold spells. A recent example was the February 13-17, 2021 winter storm Uri. This storm caused hundreds of people in Texas to die. Many wind turbines in Texas were frozen. Wind power production also was hampered by low wind velocities.
"Increasing from zero" Just wondering if you remember the same being said about solar and wind, little more than a decade ago?
Yes and what has that done?
Trillions have been spent to get more expensive and less reliable electricity while massive damage has been inflicted on the planet.
Soon the capacity of reliable energy will run down to the tipping point and if that trend continues then the whole ponzi scheme will collapse.
https://newcatallaxy.blog/2023/07/11/approaching-the-tipping-point/
Care to put a date to that prediction?
To be more precise, it is a conditional IF -> THEN prediction.
If we keep running down reliable power then there will be trouble when it falls below the level of the base load.
That can be avoided by preventive action, otherwise the timing remains to be seen.
It is not a historical prophecy, as you will appreciate from the distinction that Popper drew in The Poverty of Historicism.
So, assuming no policy change in SA, when will this disaster happen?
Putting my cards on the table, I'm confident SA can get to 90 per cent renewable on average by 2027. Maybe a bit of gas and diesel backup at night, but so what?
So they will still depend on coal power from Victoria to avoid blackouts, and then what happens when Victoria is running on 90% RE and there is a severe wind drought across SE Australia for two or three days and nights?
Here’s an analysis of how a grid with > 90 per cent RE would have performed in the recent wind drought
https://reneweconomy.com.au/a-near-100pct-renewable-grid-for-australia-is-feasible-and-affordable-with-just-a-few-hours-of-storage/
"No jurisdiction anywhere has successfully demonstrated an electric grid that depends on wind and solar to the extent that the Scoping Plan does."
The author apparently hasn't heard of South Australia, which averages over 70% solar/wind, a number that is steadily increasing. No hydro or nuclear, no net imports, and only limited interconnections. Batteries for grid stability, inertia etc
Routinely runs at 100 per cent solar/wind, or more.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/south-australia-enjoyed-82-pct-wind-and-solar-for-entire-december-quarter-so-it-can-be-done/
When someone uses the word “average” when discussing grid operation, I assume every everything that follows is bullshit.
I have the same reaction to the term "baseload". Everyone has their hot buttons, I guess.
Sounds incredible. Do they have extensive battery backup?
SA was among the first jurisdictions to install a big battery, initially for the network stability problems mentioned in the OP, but now used to store daytime solar and discharge in early evening. Here's a link
https://hornsdalepowerreserve.com.au/
Thank you. I'll take a look.
19 nights out of 20 South Australia is burning gas and importing coal power from next door in Victoria. They have a great deal of solar in the day but for some strange reason there is none between sunset and sunrise and precious little for some hours after sunrise and and before sunset.
During a recent wind drought they were burning diesel as well as gas.
I have crossed swords my countryman John Quiggin many times in the past. As an economist you would expect him to be better with numbers:)
At the moment, on a sunny but rather still afternoon, they are importing power and the wind is generating about 10% of their demand. Look at this very handy live display and see the picture when the sun goes down.
https://www.nem-watch.info/widgets/reneweconomy/
If everyone looked at this site at breakfast and dinnertime, enthusiasm for wind and solar power would not survive for long!
I should have read your comment first before making mine. LOL
To clarify, unsubsidised wind and solar off the grid are ok, and unsubsidised rooftop solar as well , provided that it does not feed back into the grid to destabilize it.
Power at dinner time is increasingly delivered by batteries. Maybe you should follow more closely
https://reneweconomy.com.au/battery-storage-meets-more-than-20-per-cent-of-early-evening-peak-demand-in-australia/
Increasing from zero, like EVs. See how long the batteries last.
Imports supply only a small proportion of demand, and are matched by exports. NY presumably has better grid connections than does SA.
At 10pm SA is importing 20% of the demand and generating 10%. 70% is gas and diesel, 1% battery. Still a long way to sunrise!
https://www.nem-watch.info/widgets/reneweconomy/
The claim in the OP was that no jurisdiction has relied as much on renewables as NY plans to do. My reading was that it allowed some gas etc. So, the fact that there is a small and declining amount of gas and diesel left in the SA system doesn't help the OP claim.
If you are really worried about late night demand, put the price up and see what happens. It's called market forces.
As a student of wind droughts I wonder why there is so much talk about average CFs.
It is the wind droughts that make the green transition impossible, and it is a great shame that the meteorologists never issued wind drought warnings.
Independent observers in Australia documented the fatal flaw in the wind power system over a decade ago but even in Australia nobody in authority took any notice until very recently.
https://newcatallaxy.blog/2023/06/19/its-about-the-wind-droughts-stupid/
https://newcatallaxy.blog/2023/07/11/approaching-the-tipping-point/
https://newcatallaxy.blog/2023/07/18/lets-all-follow-germany/
https://www.flickerpower.com/index.php/search/categories/general/the-energy-crisis-how-we-got-here-and-how-to-move-on
Yes, averages won't be much consolation if we have a prolonged wind drought as has happened on some historical occasions. I've read about low wind periods as long as 10 years, but just 5 or 6 days could be rather disastrous if it leads to blackouts.
Overnight in Australia coal provides nearly 80% of demand and a single windless night without coal cannot be met by any feasible or affordable form of storage. Our severe wind droughts can last up to three days and nights on the records of the last 16 years.
We generate 1% of the world's emissions, the same as Britain, so what is the point of reducing them while China and the developing world are pressing onwards and upwards?
Moreover on the climate science side, the warming and extra CO2 of modern times have been beneficial, there is no reason to regard CO2 as a significant driver of warming and there is no sign of accelerating warming, possibly the reverse. There are hiccups like big El Ninos and the big volcanic explosion in the Pacific that spiked warming in the N hemisphere after a lag period.
Based on the statistics shown in the article, the NYSERDA Integration Analysis (NIA) suffers from many significant problems. It falsely diminishes the capacity factors for dispatchable electricity generators such as nuclear and natural gas while exaggerating the capabilities of inherently-intermittent solar and wind. There is an additional power system requirement for sufficient synchronous grid inertia to assure grid stability. https://greennuke.substack.com/p/why-is-grid-inertia-important. I recommend that the NIA be scrapped and replaced with an analysis free of ideological bias. I lived in New York state from 1973-1986. Polar vortices with inadequate reliable power is a prescription for large numbers of fatalities. Humans are warm-blooded. At least five times as many humans die from extreme cold as die from being too hot.
There is no reason to die from heat if you are hydrated and sheltered from the sun.
I like the idea of scrapping the NIA!
Not sure what you mean by "polar vortices"...?
Polar vortices are long-duration large-area cold spells. A recent example was the February 13-17, 2021 winter storm Uri. This storm caused hundreds of people in Texas to die. Many wind turbines in Texas were frozen. Wind power production also was hampered by low wind velocities.
Love this comment!