California’s energy politics are horrendous. The state has elected politicians whose only goal in life is to demagogue their way to more power of the human kind by virtue signaling their commitment to green energy. The Golden State has way overbuilt solar power and steadily eroded its energy security while making itself ever more dependent on other states for its energy at critical times. It’s raining disaster and the the ducks have gone underwater.
I like the rain analogy. In the rainy Pacific Northwest, where Lewis and Clark and company became extremely depressed during the rainy winter at the mouth of the Columbia, we have a saying, coined by former governor McCall, in trying to encourage Californians to stay home, "Oregonians don't tan - they rust".
Your comment "The dynamics of the duck curve can challenge the traditional economics of dispatchable power plants because the factors contributing to the curve reduce the amount of time a conventional power plant operates, which results in reduced energy revenues" reminds me of a basic business principle - highest and best use. The highest and best use of any power source is if it can be utilized continuously, 24/7. Coal, gas, and nuclear have the potential for highest and best use; solar doesn't even come close.
I like to think of the duck curve as something akin to a manual transmission in a car. When solar panels come online and take the demand off of the grid, it’s like dispatchable generation goes into a smooth cruise or idle at a relatively low RPM, i.e., equilibrium. Then, as it gets dark, the “driver” has no time to smoothly reaccelerate and dumps the clutch to go from first gear to sixth to reach equilibrium again. Most transmissions can handle a dumped clutch here and there; no driver is perfect and things happen. The problem though is when mishaps like that become habit and eventually a dumped clutch instantly results in a stall — which is what will happen with the grid. Dispatchable generation is going to be fighting like hell to come online and a generation unit is going to trip in the process. Things of this nature, i.e., units tripping offline, already happen during day-to-day operations from time to time; and when dispatchable demand goes from flat to steep, the generators’ margin for error is very low.
Per your article and the link to the CalMatters article, this mess can be best summarized by, once again, the climate grifters not working a day in their lives in the industry to be able to understand how it works. The various power companies across California, in my opinion, would have very likely gone bankrupt over the next several years had customers with solar panels kept taking payment at the same rate for excess power generated; and the CAPUC reduced the rates for excess power payments so they not only don’t bite, but cut off the hands they’re being fed from.
Again in reference to the CalMatters article, I truly feel for the solar developers who have had to lay off employees or shut down altogether because they’re business owners with mouths to feed. However, I also feel that their ire is in some cases, a bit misdirected because they’re not grasping the concept that the product they’re selling and installing has reached a level of saturation while creating both an electrical and economical instability. With a unanimous vote to reduce the rates on excess power generated from solar, I think the CAPUC realized they couldn’t keep robbing Peter to pay Paul.
There are over 350,000 MW of solar wind and batteries in the California grid interconnection queue at the moment…just in case you think they have learned anything from this.
Powerful, Mr. Shepstone! How long can California last, before they have another Gray Davis moment?
Thanks, Steve!
I like the rain analogy. In the rainy Pacific Northwest, where Lewis and Clark and company became extremely depressed during the rainy winter at the mouth of the Columbia, we have a saying, coined by former governor McCall, in trying to encourage Californians to stay home, "Oregonians don't tan - they rust".
Your comment "The dynamics of the duck curve can challenge the traditional economics of dispatchable power plants because the factors contributing to the curve reduce the amount of time a conventional power plant operates, which results in reduced energy revenues" reminds me of a basic business principle - highest and best use. The highest and best use of any power source is if it can be utilized continuously, 24/7. Coal, gas, and nuclear have the potential for highest and best use; solar doesn't even come close.
I love the highest and best use concept as you've applied it and you are exactly as I see it!
I like to think of the duck curve as something akin to a manual transmission in a car. When solar panels come online and take the demand off of the grid, it’s like dispatchable generation goes into a smooth cruise or idle at a relatively low RPM, i.e., equilibrium. Then, as it gets dark, the “driver” has no time to smoothly reaccelerate and dumps the clutch to go from first gear to sixth to reach equilibrium again. Most transmissions can handle a dumped clutch here and there; no driver is perfect and things happen. The problem though is when mishaps like that become habit and eventually a dumped clutch instantly results in a stall — which is what will happen with the grid. Dispatchable generation is going to be fighting like hell to come online and a generation unit is going to trip in the process. Things of this nature, i.e., units tripping offline, already happen during day-to-day operations from time to time; and when dispatchable demand goes from flat to steep, the generators’ margin for error is very low.
Per your article and the link to the CalMatters article, this mess can be best summarized by, once again, the climate grifters not working a day in their lives in the industry to be able to understand how it works. The various power companies across California, in my opinion, would have very likely gone bankrupt over the next several years had customers with solar panels kept taking payment at the same rate for excess power generated; and the CAPUC reduced the rates for excess power payments so they not only don’t bite, but cut off the hands they’re being fed from.
Again in reference to the CalMatters article, I truly feel for the solar developers who have had to lay off employees or shut down altogether because they’re business owners with mouths to feed. However, I also feel that their ire is in some cases, a bit misdirected because they’re not grasping the concept that the product they’re selling and installing has reached a level of saturation while creating both an electrical and economical instability. With a unanimous vote to reduce the rates on excess power generated from solar, I think the CAPUC realized they couldn’t keep robbing Peter to pay Paul.
You’re the man, Mr. Shepstone!
Thank you, Patrick!
Your commentary is simply phenomenal, to say the least!
You’re too kind, sir. I have to give the same credit to you for the work you do!
There are over 350,000 MW of solar wind and batteries in the California grid interconnection queue at the moment…just in case you think they have learned anything from this.
I am going to buy some cheap land in the desert and open a dump for the solar panels coming off line.
My tipping fee structure will maximize what I can extract from the CA taxpayers, with 10 % going back to the Big Guy