Roger Caiazza needs your help in commenting on a "Draft Scope" a/k/a plan, for preparing a New York State Energy Plan. Only in the Empire State, of course, but Roger needs help!
I submitted comments at the last minute 11:56pm. I encourage others to make us awake of similar activities including PUCs in their states so we can provide insight.
My comments were based Connecticut regulatory and utility tracking which showed actual residential solar costs of 50+ cents/kwh or 12 times last year's ISO price.
Also commented extensively on the ISO-NE analysis which shows the marginal cost to electrification(heat pumps and EVs) to be 4.3 times the cost of Net Zero for the present base load which results in a doubling of prices for all if the electrification load is not charged the higher 4.3 times marginal price.
The ISO analysis (called EPCET) shows that HP/EV requires 10 times the expensive offshore wind for a 60% increase in energy...disproportionate costs.
Due to the cost and reliability concerns it appears the ISO is replacing 55,000 MW of wind/solar/storage with 15,119 MW of small nuclear for the base case analysis going forward. Even at $12,000/kW the nuclear is cheaper and of course more reliable.
In another scenario 19,637 MW of Synthetic Natural Gas units replaces 36 GW of wind/solar/storage at lower cost even though the SNG costs $40 /mmBTU 10 times the present natural gas price.
Go to the ISO-NE website and read the EPCET reports and detail slides especially the October 18, 2023 presentation.
I also showed heating costs as function of fuel type and boiler efficiency. HP would cost 70% more than my modern 95% efficient gas boiler at today's electricity prices. Conversion only makes sense for electric resistance heating especially as electricity prices skyrocket.
I suggested a better way then heat pumps is my conversion of an old oil boiler to 95% efficient gas which reduced CO2 emissions 50% 13 years ago and did not shift the problem to the grid where it will not likely ever be solved as it requires spending $200B for offshore wind,etc. My boiler conversion paid for itself in less than 5 years and didn't require a subsidy.
The other better solution is hybrid cars, possibly plug-in to take advantage of the negative electricity prices in spring and fall.
The issues are moving from the state energy agencies to the PUCs. PUCs such as Massachusetts are driving a 5 cent/kWH discount for heat pumps. Instead Long Run Marginal Costs, the proper basis for ratemaking, says the heat pumps should have a much higher rate (4.3 times) based on costs.
We should insist that ISOs etc calculate the marginal costs as they are the proper basis for decision making and for rate making.
One Item I don’t see talked about in this post is energy security. It seems to me that an all wind, solar, and battery grid would relay pretty heavily on China. Is that a wise thing to base your plans on?
I submitted comments at the last minute 11:56pm. I encourage others to make us awake of similar activities including PUCs in their states so we can provide insight.
My comments were based Connecticut regulatory and utility tracking which showed actual residential solar costs of 50+ cents/kwh or 12 times last year's ISO price.
Also commented extensively on the ISO-NE analysis which shows the marginal cost to electrification(heat pumps and EVs) to be 4.3 times the cost of Net Zero for the present base load which results in a doubling of prices for all if the electrification load is not charged the higher 4.3 times marginal price.
The ISO analysis (called EPCET) shows that HP/EV requires 10 times the expensive offshore wind for a 60% increase in energy...disproportionate costs.
Due to the cost and reliability concerns it appears the ISO is replacing 55,000 MW of wind/solar/storage with 15,119 MW of small nuclear for the base case analysis going forward. Even at $12,000/kW the nuclear is cheaper and of course more reliable.
In another scenario 19,637 MW of Synthetic Natural Gas units replaces 36 GW of wind/solar/storage at lower cost even though the SNG costs $40 /mmBTU 10 times the present natural gas price.
Go to the ISO-NE website and read the EPCET reports and detail slides especially the October 18, 2023 presentation.
I also showed heating costs as function of fuel type and boiler efficiency. HP would cost 70% more than my modern 95% efficient gas boiler at today's electricity prices. Conversion only makes sense for electric resistance heating especially as electricity prices skyrocket.
I suggested a better way then heat pumps is my conversion of an old oil boiler to 95% efficient gas which reduced CO2 emissions 50% 13 years ago and did not shift the problem to the grid where it will not likely ever be solved as it requires spending $200B for offshore wind,etc. My boiler conversion paid for itself in less than 5 years and didn't require a subsidy.
The other better solution is hybrid cars, possibly plug-in to take advantage of the negative electricity prices in spring and fall.
The issues are moving from the state energy agencies to the PUCs. PUCs such as Massachusetts are driving a 5 cent/kWH discount for heat pumps. Instead Long Run Marginal Costs, the proper basis for ratemaking, says the heat pumps should have a much higher rate (4.3 times) based on costs.
We should insist that ISOs etc calculate the marginal costs as they are the proper basis for decision making and for rate making.
Superb points, Bob! A must-read comment!
One Item I don’t see talked about in this post is energy security. It seems to me that an all wind, solar, and battery grid would relay pretty heavily on China. Is that a wise thing to base your plans on?
Everyone makes it too complicated and too difficult. To quote my favorite Louisiana politician “let the bastards freeze in the dark.”
Afterwards the concept of reasonableness will be present.
Thanks