There Never Was A Legitimate Path to Force Consumers Into EVs and Nations and States Are Learning It the Hard Way

Guest Post from Tom Pyle at the Institute for Energy Research.

In August, we noted that the growth in EVs had greatly slowed. But that only looked at sales data through July. But now we have full-year sales data for 2024, and the slowdown doesn’t look better.

In August, we noted that battery electric plus plug-in hybrid vehicle sales had dramatically increased in recent years. In 2017, these vehicles only made up 1.1% of total light-duty vehicle sales, but those sales dramatically increased until 2023, when they made up 9.4% of light-duty vehicle sales.

We also noted that sales had apparently leveled off, but at the time, we didn’t have full-year sales data for 2024. Now we do, and the picture for EV sales data doesn’t look any better. For 2024, battery electric plus plug-in hybrid vehicles accounted for 9.9% of light-duty vehicle sales.

Source: Argonne National Laboratory

As a percentage of light-duty vehicle sales, EV sales increased by 109% in 2021, 55% in 2022, 39% in 2023, and EV sales only increased by 5% in 2024. EV sales grew, but not at a rate that suggests EVs will dominate light-duty vehicle sales.

In a world where consumers’ preferences reigned, this slowdown in EV sales wouldn’t matter. However, because the Biden administration tried to mandate EVs, EV sales really matter (at least until the Trump administration can end Biden’s EV mandates). The Biden-Harris administration tried to mandate EV sales in multiple ways, but maybe the most important is EPA’s carbon dioxide emissions standards for light-duty vehicles.

Below are EPA’s projected penetration rates of battery-electric vehicles plus plug-in hybrids (Table 75 here). It shows that by 2027, if companies complied with the rule, it would require that battery electric and plug-in hybrids make up 32% of all light-duty vehicle sales and, by 2032, 68% of all light-duty vehicle sales.

Source: EPA

The graphic below shows one possible path for EVs to reach 32% of sales by 2027—an increase in EV sales of 36% every year from 2023 to 2027. Now we have the full-year sales data for 2024; EV sales only grew by 0.5%—nowhere close to the needed 36%.

Source: Data sourced from Argonne National Laboratory & EPA

There was never a legitimate path to achieve Biden’s EV mandate without forcing millions of American families to buy EVs when they would prefer gas-powered vehicles.

Now is the time for the Trump administration to roll back the mandate and allow American families to buy the vehicles that work best for their situations, not the vehicles environmental activists want to force people to buy.

#Biden #Trump #EPA #EVs #Mandate #Sales #IER #ClimateChange