Reality Is Catching Up to New York, Its Impossible Climate Act and Its Undoable Net-Zero Transition
Guest Post by Roger Caiazza of Pragmatic Environmentalist of New York.
The Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act (Climate Act) requires that the Public Service Commission (PSC) issue a review for notice and comment that considers “(a) progress in meeting the overall targets for deployment of renewable energy systems and zero emission sources, including factors that will or are likely to frustrate progress toward the targets; (b) distribution of systems by size and load zone; and (c) annual funding commitments and expenditures.”
The recently released Clean Energy Standard Biennial Review Report contains a lot of information that will be addressed in future posts. This post provides my first impression of the document. Spoiler – there is no chance that the 2030 mandate for the 70% renewable electric energy will be met.
Overview
The Climate Act established a New York “Net Zero” target (85% reduction in GHG emissions and 15% offset of emissions) by 2050. It includes an interim 2030 reduction target of a 40% reduction by 2030, a requirement for 70% renewable energy for electric production by 2030, and a requirement that all electricity generated be “zero-emissions” by 2040. The Climate Action Council (CAC) was responsible for preparing the Scoping Plan that outlined how to “achieve the State’s bold clean energy and climate agenda.”
The Integration Analysis prepared by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) and its consultants quantifies the impact of the electrification strategies. That material was used to develop the Draft Scoping Plan outline of strategies. After a year-long review, the Scoping Plan was finalized at the end of 2022.
Biennial Report
The Introduction to the report states:
The Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA) of 2019 requires that the Public Service Commission (PSC) issue a review for notice and comment that considers “(a) progress in meeting the overall targets for deployment of renewable energy systems and zero emission sources, including factors that will or are likely to frustrate progress toward the targets; (b) distribution of systems by size and load zone; and (c) annual funding commitments and expenditures.”
This Report serves to inform the Commission’s review. It summarizes the progress made toward the renewable energy and zero emission goals set by the CLCPA since the establishment of New York State’s Clean Energy Standard (CES), assesses what remains to be done to achieve those goals, presents policy options and proposals, and invites comments from stakeholders and the public on these or any other matters raised in this Report.
The Report focuses in particular on New York’s goal to obtain 70% of New York’s electricity from renewable sources by 2030 (the 70% goal) and the related goal of 9 gigawatts (GW) of offshore wind by 2035.
The footnote for the first sentence states: PSL §66-p(3). PSL §66-p(4) provides the Commission with authority to “temporarily suspend or modify” the obligations created by the Program if, after conducting a hearing, it finds that the Program “impedes the provision of safe and adequate electric service,” “is likely to impair existing obligations and agreements,” and/or is related to “a significant increase in arrears or service disconnections.” The Introduction goes on:
Section 1 identifies the key regulatory actions taken to date to support renewable energy deployment in New York, including the establishment of the CES.
Section 2 summarizes progress to date in achieving the CLCPA and CES goals in terms of current contributions of operational renewable energy systems and zero-emission sources to the State’s energy portfolio.
Section 3 offers a detailed assessment of major factors that have affected and will likely continue to affect progress towards the goals.
Section 4 reports on the pipeline of contracted renewables from previous Tier 1 and offshore wind solicitations.
Section 5 accesses the amount of renewables that would need to be procured, under the CES or a modified version of the program, to achieve the 70% goal and recommends adjustments to NYSERDA’s procurement authorization that may be necessary to do so.
Section 6 considers other programmatic options for accelerating development and construction of renewable energy resources. Policy options and proposals under consideration in this Report are limited to the CES itself.
I could do a post on each section and may end up doing that. It is encouraging that the PSC acknowledges the safety valve mechanism in Public Service Law §66 that I have mentioned on many occasions. Optimistically could this signal recognition that if the aspirational scheduled mandates of the Climate Act are not feasible that the schedule must be modified?
Progress to Date
Section 5 summarizes the “Path to the 70% goal.” The description of the Table 8 “Summary of progress” states:
Under the base case load forecast assumption of 164,910 GWh by 2030 as described above, the 70% goal equates to 115,437 GWh. Table 8 below summarizes the contributions towards the goal from currently operational and contracted renewables, as set out above in Section 2 and Section 4 of this Report. In addition, it projects 10 GW of distributed generation by 2030 secured outside the CES framework.
I will follow up with a post addressing the assumptions used to calculate the numbers in Table 8. Sections 2 and 4 described how operational and contracted/awarded renewable estimates were projected and that discussion is also worthy of its own post. At this time it is notable that one of the key points in the report is the admission that contracted projects don’t always get built.
The report describes Table 8:
With these conservative assumptions, the expected amount of renewable generation from operational and awarded/contracted sources in 2030 totals 73,292 GWh. Under the base case forecast for the 2030 statewide electric load, there is a renewable energy supply deficit of 42,145 GWh that would have to be addressed through future procurements in order to reach the 70% goal amount of 115,437 GWh.
Consider these numbers in context. There is an admitted gap of 42,145 GWh which is greater than the total operational renewable generation in 2022, 2022 imports and operational after 2022 (37.692 GWh). Trying to cover that gap is an ambitious challenge.
2030 Projected Renewables
The Biennial report proposes to double down on building renewables to cover the gap and meet the target.
To fill the expected gap, three Tier 1 annual solicitations – those for 2024, 2025, and 2026 – are currently scheduled and will seek projects capable of deploying by 2030. However, the amounts procured in these solicitations would need to be adjusted to secure the needed quantity of 42,145 GWh.
The analysis suggests NYSERDA would have to procure approximately 14,048 GWh per solicitation, assuming no project attrition, or, assuming a 30% attrition rate, an amount of 20,068 GWh per solicitation.
This volume is significantly higher than the annual procurement quantity of 4,500 GWh per Tier 1 solicitation (before attrition) estimated in the 2020 CES White Paper and 2020 CES Order.
The best efforts of the State to date for renewable solicitations are far lower than what is needed. The report admits that “the maximum annual new project development rate would likely be in the range of 6,000-7,000 GWh per year at least in the near term” and that is contingent on meeting a number of conditions. Table 9 below describes what the report argues is feasible.
Even under the revised assumptions, the PSC projects the 70% renewable energy goal will not be achieved until 2033 when the historic renewable resource deployments are considered.
Conclusion
The State has never done a feasibility analysis to prove that their plan to rely on wind and solar will work. The Climate Act deadlines were set arbitrarily by politicians, so achieving that is another level of wishful thinking.
Get out the popcorn. Reality is catching up to the Climate Act net-zero transition. This report is the first indication that things are not going as planned. How will the Hochul Administration handle the obvious need to relax the deadlines?
Editor's Note: I'm sure Roger will be addressing this in future posts and I don’t want to steal his thunder, but the even bigger story from this report is that the above numbers don't even account for increased energy demand from AI, which will make the Climate Act’s impossibility apparent to all.
#ClimateAct #NewYork #Climate #Hochul #Wind #Solar #Renewables #EVs #Mandates #EnergyTransition
Roger Caiazza blogs on New York energy and environmental issues at Pragmatic Environmentalist of New York. This post represents his opinion alone and not the opinion of his previous employers or any other company with which he has been associated. Roger has followed the Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act (Climate Act) since it was first proposed, submitted comments on the Climate Act implementation plan, and has written over 400 articles about New York’s net-zero transition.
Anyone with 2 brain cells would know that 'NET ZERO' is an utterly insane off the charts idiocy, an absolute mathematical, physical, statistical and practical impossibility that can never be achieved or exist in reality!
Can't say this often enough! CLIMATE CHANGE IS AN EVEN WORSE FRAUD THAN THE PLANSCAMDEMIC! SO-CALLED GREEN TECH IS A GIGANTIC SCAM! MINING AND MANUFACTURING 'GREEN' PRODUCTS NEEDS COAL, GAS AND OIL AND MINING RARE MINERALS IS MORE ENVIRONMENTALLY TOXIC AND DESTRUCTIVE THAN LEGACY PRODUCTS. SCREW YOUR DAMNED GREEN GRIFT AGENDA! https://climateviewer.com
It's always since the dawn of history, been about using knowledge for power and control by the psycho portion of the human population that learned how to manipulate 'normies' to obey them in their power-mad power trips.
In these modern times, this evil has become TECHNOCRACY, the vilest threat to the existence of all life on earth since forever!
EW! GROSS! HELL NO! https://www.technocracy.news
NOT MY BRAIN/MIND! NOT MY BODY! NO WAY, NO HOW, NOT PLAYING YOUR AI QUANTUM STUPID-ASS VIDEO GAMES! I AM LIVING IN THE REAL WORLD CREATING ART AND PERFORMANCES!
The more I learn about this stuff, the more sickened, nauseated and horrified I get, and I wonder what kind of inhuman psychopath loonies make this crap and want to use it!?
THIS IS PURE SATANIC EVIL! IT IS MEANT TO DESTROY BILLIONS OF YEARS OF CREATION IN THE ATTEMPT OF TOTAL SLAVERY CONTROL BY POWER-MAD PSYCHOS!
I DO NOT COMPLY! NEVER HAVE, NEVER WILL! May more and more wake up and resist and cultivate their health.
There is a fate worse than death - I would rather die than be a robotized slave of technocratic overlords! This is my hill to die on!
I have a landline and a wired laptop and a wired monitor screen, all the tech anyone should ever want or need. I never had and refuse to ever have one of those infernal mobile devices that are designed to enslave you.
My loathing of AI and all things NANO and digital knows no bounds!
SCREW THE FEAR FAKERY! NO TRUSTING THE WEF RULING CLASS EVER!
Reiterating for the sake of newbies and to support this post.
I have no fear of 'germs' or 'viruses'. One of the best places to go for reality: https://virustruth.net
I try to live without fear! Fear is the mind-killer!
PROPAGANDA CAMPAIGNS BY POWERFUL, WEALTHY CRIMINALS WITH EVIL INTENT CAN CAUSE ALL KINDS OF HAVOC! QUESTION EVERYTHING!
And these, the criminals behind the NAC and all the other schemes will use hypochondria hysteria and 'climate' hysteria to propagandize the gullible 'sheeple' into complying with TOTAL ENSLAVEMENT which is what this is really about!
A vast majority of so-called leaders and Public 'Serpents' around the world have been bribed, blackmailed/coerced into serving the interests of their technocratic New World Ordure parasite masters and not We the People.
GREED is behind every evil assailing us in the world!
The demonic despots of Davos at it again! They are behind everything bad! At it for decades and cronies like The Rothschilds and the Black Nobility and The Khazarian Mafia have been plotting planetary domination for centuries! ALL BECAUSE OF AVARICE!
We the People must try harder to live by The Golden Rule, doing so would solve most problems!
THEY can't get rid of the 'useless eaters' fast enough! Mistakes were not made, it was always malice aforethought.
AUTISM TSUNAMI/SADS/TURBO CANCER/BIZARRE TERMINAL ILLNESSES: More tragic victims of the ruling parasite genocidal enslavement agenda, sacrificed on the altar of psychopathic greed and hatred of humanity.
Migrant/Entrant Invasion/Infrastructure Attacks - all part of the destructive plot to achieve total slavery!
Apoplectic livid rage hardly describes the intensity of emotions I have had and am having over what these malignant globalists are perpetrating!
There is no noxious crime that the evildoers desiring to lord it over us won't commit to maintain their stranglehold on power. A groundswell critical mass resistance to their murderous enslavement plans is needed urgently!
Creative performing arts, fine arts and literary arts are the best part of being human and the thing the globalist predator technocrat megalomaniac total slavery control freaks most want to destroy.
Too many 'sheeple' are brainwashed to blindly obey authority figures on the media or in daily life in corrupt system ruled by control freak psychopaths who use propaganda lies to enslave their subjects and they are dumbed down to be obedient by 'education' institutions. Fortunately I was raised to question everything. This transcends party lines. We need a system that punishes psychopaths and rewards compassion and sharing, we need a system that actually follows The Constitution in reality.
Kudos to Thomas J Shepstone's heroic efforts and success in the struggle. We the People must always be aware of the existential threats lurking behind this fight!
How I stick my thumb in the eyes of the grotesque billionaire bastards pushing their enslavement agenda and how I embrace being fully human.
Fighting the globalist predator technocrat psychopath megalomaniac TOTAL SLAVERY AGENDA one performance at a time!
Amazing Amy: Eccentric Yoga Entertainer!
As an entertainer, I have been devastated and practically destroyed by the closure of all performance venues and then when they reopened, because MY BODY, MY CHOICE - being made a total untermenschen pariah outcast in NAZI NIGHTMARE LAWLESS 'SHOW ME YOUR PAPERS' JAB CROW APARTHEID/DISCRIMINATION/SEGREGATION HELL NYC WHERE THE MAD/DRUNK WITH POWER TYRANT POLS DOUBLE DOWN ON THEIR ILLEGAL MANDATES. I am trapped here with zero financial resources to leave or do anything else about this 'wish I were dead' endless misery life has become. The tragic irony is that my SPREAD THE YOGA LOVE performances are all about health, miraculously overcoming age (68) and injury to achieve feats of flexibility few can attain at any age. So BIG PHARMA who wants to addict every person on the planet to their toxic products hate people like me who prove that we do not need them if we eat healthy organic food and exercise daily!
https://www.reverbnation.com/artist/amazingamycontortionistuniqueyogadancer
I try and live and embody the creative performing artistic world and life I so fervently want existence to be about.
They can stick their f*cking damned NANO, Digital IDs, AI, jabs and chips up their asses where the sun don't shine!
All manner of lies and propaganda spew forth from the upper echelons in governments worldwide who are completely intertwined with the global criminal ruling class that wants to commit the worst atrocities imaginable and suffer no consequences. And their corruption slithers down the chain of command creating petty tyrants everywhere.
We the People are facing HORRIFYING TECHNOCRATIC PSYCHOPATHY TO DESTROY HUMANITY AND ALL NATURAL LIFE!
It was NEVER about health! The Powers That Should Not Be were ALWAYS about they want you DEAD or a SLAVE! This is a painful truth to accept but we the people must wake up and fight back!
We must never lose sight of the larger picture of the vile malignance we are fighting against.
There is an insidious global ruling class plot to enslave all life on earth behind all the madness and suffering inflicted on We the People.
How to fight back against this TOTAL SLAVERY!
RESIST! DO NOT COMPLY! DITCH THE DAMNED 'SMART' PHONES AND THE DAMNED QR CODES AND GO BACK TO LANDLINES OR FLIP PHONES AND USE CASH AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE! INSIST ON CASH! CBDC IS TOTAL SLAVERY!
Other than getting rid of nuclear weapons which I support 100% the rest of the anti-nuclear peace movement and CLIMATE CRISIS propaganda is parroting UN utter GARBAGE, a complete surrender to the ENSLAVEMENT AGENDA by the diabolical despots of Davos - ruling class criminals who lust for total power and control and all of whom should be tried and jailed for life and their malign organizations dismantled: the UN, the WEF, the IMF, the WHO, the BIS, NATO, Blackrock, Vanguard, The Rockefellers, the Rothschilds, The Bilderbergers, the CFR et al.
There is an evil predator globalist technocratic elite agenda of eugenics/depopulation/genocide using bioweapon poison jabs, war, geoengineering, EMF radiation, starvation and economic collapse - THE GREAT RESET/AGENDA 2030/4TH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION to get rid of billions of 'useless eaters' and to use nano tech to turn the survivors into ROBOTIZED COMPLIANT SLAVES! WAKE UP AND RESIST! DO NOT COMPLY! These are psychopath megalomaniacs who want to play god by turning all life into digitized metaverse mechanistic synthetic biology to be manipulated by their AI algorithms. A more demonic sickening idea is nearly impossible to imagine!
APPALLED AND HORRIFIED AT INSANE TYRANNICAL PROTOCOLS THAT HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH HEALTH AND EVERYTHING TO DO WITH TOTALITARIAN CONTROL! REVERSE THIS NOW!
MAKE THE WORLD AND AMERICA 2019 (comparatively speaking), AND FREE AGAIN!
NO, I AM NOT AFRAID OF THE MORONIC SCARIANT SHMARIANT MONKEYSHINES! WAKE UP ALREADY!
TOTALLY CONDEMN BIDEN AND ALL OTHER POLS WHO HAVE NO POWER TO LAWLESSLY ACT LIKE AN EMPEROR OR DICTATOR AND DECREE JAB CROW 'SHOW ME YOUR PAPERS' FASCIST SEGREGATION/DISCRIMINATION/APARTHEID VIOLATIONS OF THE CONSTITUTION, THE NUREMBERG CODES AND EVERY CIVIL RIGHT IMAGINABLE.
NO GREEN NEW DEALS OR BUILD BACK BETTER FROM THE CRIMINAL TECHNOCRAT TYRANTS KLAUS SCHWAB AND HIS CRONIES FROM THE WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM.
STOP THE TERRIBLE TYRANNY OF THE TECHNOCRATS GLOBAL AGENDA OF TOTAL SURVEILLANCE AND CONTROL USING THE VIRUS AS EXCUSE AND PROPAGANDA TOOL!
NO MUZZLING STIFLING MASK MANDATES! NO FORCED VACCINES! END TORTUROUS DEVASTATING LOCK DOWNS NOW! I WANT MY LIFE BACK.
Reality is NOT catching up to the Climate Act. Although what you write is true, this is all inside baseball stuff and if 1% of the people of New York State are aware of any of this I’d be pleasantly surprised. Furthermore the New York Times and the rest of the MSM is never going to admit any of this.
When NYS is suffering frequent massive blackouts and brownouts, when industry and investment are fleeing NYS, when population is dropping, that will be reality catching up.
The old saw is that if something can’t go on it won’t. Perhaps the role of New York, California, and a few other “climate leaders” will be to demonstrate, painfully, the insanity of our ruling class. Hopefully then we can dispose of them and start to rebuild.