New York State Is Barreling Toward Catastrophic Blackouts, Too Proud to Admit It Cannot Virtue Signal Its Way to Reliability

Our good friend Roger Caiazza has taken a hard look at the recently released New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) 2023-2042 System & Resource Outlook report and found it wanting in every respect. He has written a rather long post on the subject, which is available here. I’ve decided it deserves a summary because it’s that important, so here is some of what Roger wrote, starting with his conclusion:

The NYISO System and Resource Outlook describes issues that threaten reliability and resilience of the electric system.  In my opinion, it is frustrating that the issue descriptions are couched in qualifying statements that disguise the magnitude of the challenges. 

It is left up to the reader to figure out that it is unlikely that the Climate Act mandates can be implemented without causing reliability crises.  In my opinion, the requirements of the Climate Act demand too much, too soon and the proposed plan to rely on wind and solar will cause catastrophic blackouts.

And, here is why Roger says this:

The key themes that describe the Resource Outlook state of the grid outline potential issues.  In this section I describe the themes that posed issues threatening reliability and resilience to the grid but add some context that was not included in the slide presentation. 

The themes describe the status of the electric system.  This summer the electric system should be able to meet demand but “extreme weather and other factors pose reliability risks.”  In the winter, “the availability of natural gas for power generation may be limited and significant interruptions to natural gas supply can disrupt reliable operations.”  Unsaid were the ramifications of State policy decisions to limit natural gas pipelines to alleviate this availability problem.

The themes also address changes to the electric system.  Public policies are one of the causes of rapid changes to New York’s electric system in the state.  One of the consequences of the electrification mandate is that New York peak loads will occur in the winter in the 2030s. 

Another driver of change is the marked increase in loads partially due to electrification mandates but also due to economic initiatives and increased demand for computing resources.  These changes have resulted in narrower reliability margins compounded by the unmentioned State policy decisions to force generator deactivations and preclude replacement with new fossil-fired generation.

Another issue raised in the themes is the schedule.  There have been and will be delays in construction of new supply and transmission.  NYISO recognizes that the interconnection process must change to keep up with the schedule but in this presentation did not describe  the technological changes that complicate interconnection of inverter-based intermittent wind and solar resources. 

I maintain that NYISO does not acknowledge that the need for “significant changes to the wholesale electricity markets administered by the NYISO” significantly complicates the transition.  NYISO not only must identify the technology needed to provide a reliable and resilient system but must also conjure up a market mechanism that will entice developers to provide those resources.

A primary concern expressed in the presentation was the need for “new emission-free supply capable of providing the necessary reliability services are needed to replace the capabilities of today’s generation.” 

NYISO descriptions of DEFR [Dispatchable Emissions-Free Resources] always mention that “such new supply is not yet available on a commercial scale” but never articulate the risk to the reliability and resilience of the system of a policy that presumes that the resource will be developed as required. 

Another related concern is that planning for this resource in a weather-dependent electric grid must address the challenge that wind and solar resource output is frequently low at the same time.  Alarmingly, the low resource availability typically occurs when the loads are highest which exacerbates the importance of a reliable DEFR solution.

Finally, here are a few slides from the NYISO report that precisely illustrate the problems of which Roger writes:

These four slides tell the entire story captured in Roger’s discussion and conclusion. New York State is throwing away energy security and reliability on solar and wind fantasies that will require massive new transmission infrastructure nobody will want to support. Meanwhile, baseload power is evaporating and prices will inevitably have to rise tremendously. It’s a recipe for catastrophic blackouts and New York’s answer is only to say it will somehow develop DEFR [Dispatchable Emissions-Free Resources] that don’t now exist unless the state plans to develop more nuclear energy, which is highly unlikely. Some state. Some plan.

#CLCPA #Caiazza #NYISO #DEFR #NewYork