New York Is Hiding the Fact EV Sales Are Below Projections and Its Entire Climate Program Has Zero Credibility
Guest Post by Roger Caiazza of Pragmatic Environmentalist of New York.
The New York State Energy Research & Development Authority (NYSERDA) has an important role in the Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act (Climate Act) implementation. They facilitate the implementation plans for the Climate Act and publish “featured stories” that “take you inside the work to build a clean energy future in New York.” In a recent article they bragged that a record number of battery electric vehicles were sold in 2024 but did not put the numbers in context.
NYSERDA publishes “featured stories” that “take you inside the work to build a clean energy future in New York.” Last March NYSERDA requested proposals to hire a public relations outfit, using $500,000 per year of public money, to “maintain a positive narrative” and “respond to negative viewpoints” about the Climate Act. Ken Girardin evaluated the proposal request and noted that:
NYSERDA is especially concerned about certain areas of the climate program, noting they should be able to “immediately address emerging unforeseen events that draw media scrutiny” in areas including:
“Concerns related to transitioning cars, trucks, and SUVs sold in New York to zero emissions, and requiring all school buses in operation in the state to be zero-emission by 2035;” (This last policy, required by a separate state law, has given school districts sticker-shock, both with the cost premium of electric models and the unexpected cost of electricity infrastructure upgrades).
I assume (without any evidence that I could find at the NYSERDA website) that the February 11, 2025 Clean Energy Growth story “EVs hit record numbers in NY and the US” is part of that program. My problem is that I believe the concerns related to the zero emissions vehicles are real. As a result, the only way NYSERDA can convince incredulous people to change their minds is to provide biased and misleading information. In other words, all they have left is propaganda to promote their agenda. This article compares the numbers in the “EVs hit record numbers in NY and the US” story and the numbers in the Scoping Plan to see if the story is propaganda.
EVs Numbers in NY
NYSERDA gave the following numbers for New York based on this reference:
In 2024, New York saw 90,221 new EV registrations, bringing the total number of EV drivers to more than 271,000 at the start of 2025. EV registration in 2023 totaled 78,950, meaning that 2024 saw a 14.3% jump in electric vehicle adoption across New York State.
Of the new EVs registered in New York State, 54,664 were battery-electric models and 35,557 were plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. Battery-electric EVs run completely on electricity, whereas plug-in hybrids have an all-electric range of around 20 to 50 miles and an internal combustion engine fueled by gasoline that kicks in once the battery power is exhausted.
Scoping Plan EV Numbers
The Climate Act Scoping Plan is New York’s blueprint for meeting the Climate Act mandates. NYSERDA hired a contractor who developed a list of control strategies, estimated costs and emission reductions, turned a crank and conjured up three decarbonizing scenario “plans” for New York to meet the aspirational Climate Act schedule. Feasibility, accountability, and transparency are not valid descriptors of the results produced.
After no little effort, I found the projected EV data. Table 1 lists the projected 2024 EV sales for the three scenarios compared to the observed sales. Scenario 1 (Strategic Use of Low-Carbon Fuels) was the most realistic projection, the other two (Accelerated Transition Away from Combustion and Beyond 85% Reductions) were based on fantasies from the beginning. For our purposes, note battery electric vehicle sales were 10% lower than projected and plug-in hybrid vehicle sales were 34% lower than Scenario 1 projections last year.
Comparing the Strategic Use of Low-Carbon Fuels scenario projections over time shows that 2023 was te only year when the observed Battery Electric sales exceeded the projections. The Plugin Hybrid vehicle sales exceeded projections only in the first year.
The trends are shown in Figure 1. The Scoping Plan modeling projects that Battery Electric sales will increase sharply in the future. The modeling also projects that Plugin Hybrid sales will peak in 2026 and then tail off.
Discussion
Trying to estimate how every sector will be affected by changes in energy use and fuels in the NYSERDA sponsored modeling for the Climate Act implementation is a massive effort. The additional effort required to completely document the reduction strategies, emissions changes expected, and costs for each strategy undoubtedly led to the decision to not provide sufficient information for meaningful stakeholder review.
Conveniently, the lack of transparency means stakeholders have difficulty asking embarrassing questions. However, New York State is proposing a complete transformation of all facets of the energy system of the state at a likely cost of over a trillion dollars so in my opinion, the lack of comprehensive documentation is unacceptable.
Attempting to verify the Scoping Plan projections to observations is difficult. Given these results, the obfuscation is likely deliberate. In 2024 the Battery Electric vehicle sales were 10% less than projected. This is not a good result given that the projection was made three years ago suggesting no confidence in 2040 predictions. The model projects that sales will rapidly increase in 2026 and beyond. Note that Plugin Hybrids are not good enough for New York’s zero-emissions aspiration so the modeling projects that sales will peak and tail off.
My problem with the modeling results is that they are too convenient. I am convinced the projections just interpolated between the Climate Act goals and current conditions to quantify vehicle sales. The rationale driving the sales is not documented. Why does the state expect that electric vehicle sales will increase as projected?
Up until Trump paused the program there was a Federal mandate that said all vehicles sold at a certain date will be electric. All the mandates and incentives for the manufacturers are fruitless if the public says no thanks. In this case, there is no evidence there is pent up demand for electric vehicles as shown by the result that Ford lost $5.1 billion in 2024 and $4.7 billion in its electric vehicle business. Common sense says the projected sales trajectory is wishful thinking.
Conclusion
New York electric vehicle sales are not meeting the projections necessary to meet the Climate Act mandates. NYSERDA’s reports describing “record sales” don’t bother to mention that fact. That is misleading and biased so it looks like propaganda to me.
There is another consideration. The lack of evidence that the electric vehicle transportation sector emission reduction plan will work is one more reason that New York State needs to pause the process and determine if the plans are feasible before more money is squandered. I suspect that this is a universal problem for all similar initiatives. No number of cheerful claims of record sales will be able to hide the facts much longer.
#EVsales #Caiazza #Climate #Hochul #NewYork #ClimateAct #EnergySecurity #NYSERDA
Roger Caiazza blogs on New York energy and environmental issues at Pragmatic Environmentalist of New York. This post represents his opinion alone and not the opinion of his previous employers or any other company with which he has been associated. Roger has followed the Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act (Climate Act) since it was first proposed, submitted comments on the Climate Act implementation plan, and has written over 500 articles about New York’s net-zero transition.
Did Michael Mann help draw that graph?
Tesoonse To the title - of course they are!