Climate Act Reality is Now Slowly Descending Upon the Ever Politically Correct Empire State

New York State is about to go down in flames with respect to energy reliability, and the evidence is now coming from almost everybody in the know, as Roger Caiazza relates in this great post.

Guest Post by Roger Caiazza of Pragmatic Environmentalist of New York.

Several recent reports show that New York’s Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act (Climate Act) is not going as planned.  It appears that Governor Hochul is becoming aware that reality always wins, but the climate activists will explode if she acknowledges reality. Interesting times.

Back when Kathy Hochul thought renewables could do it all.

Overview

The Climate Act established a New York “Net Zero” target (85% reduction in GHG emissions and 15% offset of emissions) by 2050.  It includes an interim 2030 reduction target of a 40% reduction by 2030 and a requirement that all electricity generated be “zero-emissions” by 2040. The Climate Action Council (CAC) was responsible for preparing the Scoping Plan that outlined how to “achieve the State’s bold clean energy and climate agenda.” 

The Integration Analysis prepared by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) and its consultants quantifies the impact of the electrification strategies.  That material was used to develop the Draft Scoping Plan outline of strategies.  After a year-long review, the Scoping Plan was finalized at the end of 2022.  Since then, State agencies and the legislature have been attempting to implement the plans.

Three recent relevant reports have come out in the last month.

Climate Act Reality Flashes

The Public Service Commission (PSC) recently released the Clean Energy Standard Biennial Review Report (“Biennial Report”) that compares the renewable energy deployment progress relative to the Climate Act goal to obtain 70% of New York’s electricity from renewable sources by 2030 (the 70% goal).  It found that “there is a renewable energy supply deficit of 42,145 GWhthat would have to be addressed through future procurements in order to reach the 70% goal amount of 115,437 GWh. 

This gap is greater than the sum of the operational renewable generation in 2022, imports of renewable energy in that year, and generation from projects operational since then.  The report admits that “the maximum annual new project development rate would likely be in the range of 6,000-7,000 GWh per year at least in the near term” and projects that the 70% renewable energy goal will not be achieved until 2033 when the historic renewable resource deployments are considered. 

The New York State Comptroller Office released an audit of the NYSERDA and PSC  implementation efforts for the Climate Act titled Climate Act Goals – Planning, Procurements, and Progress Tracking (“Comptroller Report”).  The audit found that: “While PSC and NYSERDA have taken considerable steps to plan for the transition to renewable energy in accordance with the Climate Act and CES, their plans did not comprise all essential components, including assessing risks to meeting goals and projecting costs.” 

It noted that the “PSC is using outdated data, and, at times, incorrect calculations, for planning purposes and has not started to address all current and emerging issues that could significantly increase electricity demand and lower projected generation.”  Regarding costs the audit notes that “The costs of transitioning to renewable energy are not known, nor have they been reasonably estimated” and goes on to point out that the sources of funding have not been identified.

In June the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) released the latest edition of its Power Trends report that describes factors influencing New York State’s power grid and wholesale electricity markets.  The report described current and future challenges for the electric system. 

The description of the system status concludes that “electricity supplies are adequate to meet expected summer demand under normal conditions, but extreme weather and other factors pose reliability risks.” It also noted that declining reliability margins are concerning.  The report notes that increases in load are expected due to Climate Act electrification strategies and new energy-intensive projects.

Power Trends addressed the Climate Act schedule and noted that there have been delays in projects and planning processes take time.  Of particular concern is that new technologies, collectively referred to as Dispatchable Emission Free Resources (DEFRs), must be deployed as wind and solar resources are developed but these technologies do not exist yet on a commercial scale. Taken as a whole, these findings suggest that there will be significant reliability risks for the Climate Act transition on the mandated schedule.

Comptroller Report Reality

Marie French from Politico wrote that Gov. Kathy Hochul was asked by the Times Union’s Dan Clark about Comptroller Tom DiNapoli’s audit finding issues with the planning for the 70% goal the governor herself has touted. She said those goals were set based on information at the time and “predates” the then-lieutenant governor.

“That was pre-pandemic, pre-supply chain disruptions,” she said.  “We continue to power forward, but there’s some things that are out of our control,” Hochul said, noting the public isn’t rapidly adopting electric vehicles despite the state’s efforts.

The governor said the state’s climate goals are something she “would love to meet, but also the cost has gone up so much. I now have to step back and say, ‘What is the cost on the typical New York family?’ Just like I did with congestion pricing.”

Politico also noted her comments would raise even more concerns from environmental groups about Hochul’s commitment to meeting the statutory targets. It also raises more questions about whether the state will move forward with a cap-and-trade program.

“If you’re a family with three kids living in upstate New York … and your energy source is oil or even natural gas, what is the cost of that transition to you?” Hochul asked.  “We’re going to get to our goals. If we miss it by a couple of years, which is probably what will happen, the goals are still worthy, but we have to think about the collateral damage of these decisions,” Hochul said. “Either mitigate them or rethink them.”

The Politico article included responses from climate activists:

NYLCV president and CEO Julie Tighe said it was “mind-boggling” to hear Hochul’s comments a day after she toured storm damage in Rome. “I had not heard her say that before. I think some of the goals are obviously near term, but we have a long-term goal, and that is still well within reach,” Tighe said. “Coming on the heels of her pausing congestion pricing, you start to wonder if this is a trend.”

The Nature Conservancy’s New York executive director, Bill Ufelder, urged the governor to commit to the goals in the law and zeroed in on her opening the door to “rethink” the goals. “The science on climate change has not changed; we are at a critical moment in the fight to ensure the health, well-being, and economic strength of our state,” he said in a statement.

Democratic Sen. Liz Krueger posted on X in response to Hochul’s comments: “The passage of time does not change the law and it doesn’t make the climate crisis magically disappear. We are dangerously behind on the science-based mandates in CLCPA. It’s time to redouble our efforts, and build a more affordable, healthier, livable future for New Yorkers.”

Clean Energy Standard Biennial Report Reality

Politico’s Marie J. French also wrote about the effect of the Biennial Report on the schedule noting that:

“New York is on track to miss most of the looming targets the legislation set. Gov. Kathy Hochul’s administration acknowledged in a July 1 report that the state was not going to meet the 70 percent renewable electricity by 2030 target — as offshore wind projects and upstate wind and solar development have faltered.”

French noted that other targets are in danger:

New York is expected to miss targets for energy efficiency, energy storage and electrification of vehicles and homes. Overall, the state as of 2021 had only reduced emissions 10 percent from the 1990 baseline. Much more progress will be needed to meet the 2030 target of a 40 percent reduction in the climate law.

She also noted that:

Environmental advocates worry Hochul won’t commit the resources needed to get New York on track to slash emissions and avoid the worsening impacts of climate change. “How many heat waves are we going to experience, and how many people are going to die in those heat waves?” said Jessica Azulay, program director of Alliance for a Green Economy. “We’re in a race against time, and we can’t really negotiate with greenhouse gas emissions.”

A North Country Public Radio interview with Colin Kinniburgh, a climate journalist with New York Focus, acknowledged that the “total overhaul of basically how we run our economy” has forced the Hochul Administration to “wobble on some aspects of the law” particularly relative to costs.  He believes that the building out rooftop and smaller-scale solar is going well.  On the other hand, he noted that the rollout of the proposed cap-and-dividend program will be the biggest signal of the Administration’s commitment to the Climate Act:

It’s going to affect the entire state’s economy. It’s called a price ceiling. They set a limit on how expensive it would be to pollute. That’s pretty crucial because if it’s low then you could argue that it gives polluters a pass. So that’s by far the biggest thing.

Agency Response

Marie French interviewed NYSERDA President and CEO Doreen Harris who claimed that the state is making headway. Harris said: “We have moved these markets in a very significant way”.  “The whole reason for setting goals … is to provide market sizing for the private sector to respond to.”

Susan Arbetter Capital Tonight also interviewed Harris and Rory Christian, chair and CEO of the PSC.  There is so much material in this interview that I am going to devote an article to it.  The highlight came when Arbetter asked if the Hochul Administration had plans to pause the implementation of its already delayed climate goals.   Harris responded:

“Absolutely not. And instead, what we are seeing is this market response. Clearly, change takes time but at the same time, when we set these goals, we see the market responding in ways that are truly transforming our economy and, and, benefiting New Yorkers. So, our commitment remains firm,” she said.

Both Harris and Christian maintained that everything is fine and gave a very optimistic interpretation of the Comptroller and Biennial Reports.  I wonder if they hope the politicians bail them out when reality strikes and it is no longer possible to ignore the three reports described.  In the meantime, they are following the narrative.

Conclusion

In the last month three reports have raised concerns about meeting the schedule, documenting the costs, and potential risks to reliability.  Climate activists and their considerable lobbying power deny the importance of these reports.  The Administration will be forced to choose between the expert conclusions and the pervasive and emotional demands of the activists. 

I think that Hochul has caught on to the fact that the biggest force, the unsuspecting populace of New York, is starting to realize how much this will affect their lives and bank accounts.  These irresistible forces are converging, so stay tuned because when they collide the shocks will reverberate around New York.

#ClimateAct #NewYork #Climate #NYC #Comptroller #NetZero #Risks #Hochul #ClimateReality

Roger Caiazza blogs on New York energy and environmental issues at Pragmatic Environmentalist of New York.  This post represents his opinion alone and not the opinion of his previous employers or any other company with which he has been associated. Roger has followed the Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act (Climate Act) since it was first proposed, submitted comments on the Climate Act implementation plan, and has written over 400 articles about New York’s net-zero transition.