Best Energy Picks - December 7, 2024
Readers pass along a lot of stuff every week about natural gas, fractivist antics, emissions, renewables, and other news relating to energy.
This week’s best energy picks:
When Government Picks Winners and Losers, Everyone Loses!
From the list of the unbelievably stupid:
The clean green energy fiasco has reached a new level of incompetence and waste.
Bloomberg reports UK Is Paying £1 Billion to Waste a Record Amount of Wind Power
Burgeoning capacity and blustery weather should have driven huge growth in output in 2024. But the grid can’t cope, forcing the operator to pay wind farms to turn off, a cost ultimately borne by consumers. It’s a situation that puts at risk plans to decarbonize the network by 2030 and makes it harder to cut bills.
Crucial to the net zero grid target is a massive build-out of renewable power, particularly from wind. Britain has boosted its offshore fleet by 50% in the past five years and is set to double it in the next five, Bloomberg data show.
But the grid hasn’t expanded at the same pace. As a result, the operator is increasingly paying wind farms, particularly those in Scotland, not to run. So far this year, the UK has spent more than £1 billion ($1.3 billion) in “congestion costs” to turn off plants that can’t deliver electricity because of grid constraints, and switch on others.
UK generators usually sell output in advance on the wholesale market. But those transactions don’t take into account the physical limitations of balancing supply and demand in real time. To keep the lights on, the operator steps in, paying some plants to turn off and others that are closer to demand centers to fire up.
Often, this means shutting off a far-flung wind farm and starting up a gas-fed plant that’s closer to a city.
I don’t believe we need an energy director to diagnose the complete absurdity of this arrangement.
No, we don’t.
Hat Tip: D.S./T.Z.
So, Our LNG Is Europe's Relief Valve, Then. Good to Know!
LNG has been a huge success for America and it’s only going to get better!
Despite being at war for almost three years, Russia has continued to ship natural gas via pipelines through Ukraine to other countries in Europe. That has kept money flowing to both countries, which helps as they try to kill each other. However, that may end on December 31 when the current five-year pipeline agreement ends. Kyiv is saying that it will not enter into negotiations with Russia over an extension…
In numerical terms, the estimates are that Russia could lose up to $6.5B annually should the agreement not be renewed. For Ukraine, losses could equal only $800M annually – substantially less than Russia. In addition, Russia faces the long-term effects of the loss of market share and the perception of its future reliability…
Since 2022, when European countries pledged to disconnect from Russian energy supplies in the wake of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia's share of natural gas imports to Europe has decreased significantly from the 40% share that it once owned. Meanwhile, Ukraine's share of those exports has dropped from 11% to 5%…
On this side of the Atlantic, the end of the Ukraine pipeline agreement makes American energy export capability all the more important. Due to the shale revolution in the Northeastern United States, America is able to replace Russia as Europe's key natural gas supplier.
Further, as Russian supplies are drilled from the Arctic with few environmental safeguards, that arrangement has not only worked well for American producers and overall national security, but it actually is also better for the world environment as a whole. If Ukraine now moves to isolate Russia even further, continued American oil and natural gas production will no doubt have positive impacts in many areas, and possibly might even help bring the fighting to an earlier end than might otherwise be possible.
American natural gas is energy security for the world!
Hat Tip: D.M.
So, You’re Saying Communism Is the Only Way to Get People Into EVS?
That certainly seems to be the lesson here:
Now that the shine and allure of being the 'new fad' and government subsidies are starting to wear off - along with a marketplace full of super-saturated competition and robust supply - EVs simply aren't selling.
That was the topic of a new FT report that claims the auto industry’s shift toward EVs, once seen as essential, is now facing serious challenges.
It cites for example that Northvolt, Europe’s top battery producer, filed for bankruptcy last week, casting doubt on the region’s industrial strategy. Additionally, Stellantis announced the closure of its UK van plant, risking 1,100 jobs, while Volkswagen and Ford also warned of significant job cuts and plant closures due to weaker-than-expected EV demand.
And as we noted earlier this week, GM is taking a $5 billion charge to reorganize its Chinese business…
And carmakers have scaled back production plans, with U.S. EV output expected to drop by 50% and European plans by 29% next year, according to Bernstein. By 2025, EV market share is projected to reach 23% in Europe and 13% in the U.S.
FT reported that the slow growth of EV adoption globally stems from high upfront costs, concerns about range and charging infrastructure, and fading energy price advantages due to geopolitical tensions…
China … has successfully integrated its EV strategy, leveraging state-backed initiatives, subsidies, and a robust supply chain to dominate the market. More than half of new cars sold in China are now EVs or plug-in hybrids, aided by competitive pricing and innovative in-car technology…
Bernstein analyst Daniel Roeska concluded: “The EV production forecast for 2025 has seemingly only gone one way — down.”
China, of course, is happy to restrict travel, so there is nothing surprising in the fact it’s forcing people into EVs provided by the government.
Hat Tip: R.N.
Man, Oh, Mann! That Was As Bad A Case of the Fatal Conceit As It Gets!
The enjoyment you’ll get from reading this story is directly proportional to Michael Mann's arrogance.
Well, the 2024 hurricane season has come to an end and we can now close out Michael E. Mann’s forecast—delivering a prediction so spectacularly off-target it could make a dartboard blush. As we previously noted in our post “Michael E. Mann, the Black Knight,” he reminds us of the Monty Python character who loses every limb in battle yet stubbornly insists, “’Tis but a scratch!” This time, Mann’s sword of speculative forecasts landed on a projection of 33 named storms for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season—”the highest count ever predicted,” as he proudly declared back in April.
Well, the season has closed, and reality had other plans. Instead of the hurricane Armageddon Mann foresaw, we ended up with a grand total of 18 named storms—a far cry from the 33 he predicted. For perspective, that 18 is just barely above the historical average of 14. And for Mann, whose forecast has been roundly criticized as one of the most inaccurate in recent memory, it’s more like a monument to overconfidence.
SteveMilloy of JunkScience summed it up aptly by calling Mann’s prediction “the wrongest count ever predicted.” While that might sound harsh, it’s tough to argue with the numbers. Mann didn’t just miss the bullseye—he missed the entire dartboard and hit the pub wall.
Let’s be clear: there’s nothing inherently wrong with making predictions. But when those predictions are presented with the weight of academic authority and serve as fodder for climate alarmism, they deserve scrutiny. Mann’s forecast wasn’t some cautious, probabilistic estimate; it was a bold declaration of climate doom. And when reality came knocking, it left Mann’s claims in shambles. Yet, much like the Monty Python knight, Mann continues to stand in the wreckage of his prediction, defiantly insisting, “I’m invincible!”
Mann in shambles…yes.
Hat Tip: S.H.
And, Briefly:
Greens Cry Foul As Grid Operator’s Bid To Improve Energy Reliability, from T.Z.
Climate Change Contrarians: Saying What Needs To Be Said, from S.H.
Wind Project Off New York Coast ‘On Pause’ After Trump Victory, from R.N.
The Fiat Standard and the American Electric Grid, from G.F.
California's Energy Surplus, from D.S.
The Supply Chain of Ethanol: From Seed to Gas Tank, from J.S.
Big Tech’s Sudden Rush to Nuclear is a Win/Win for America, from D.B.
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