Argentina Pulls Out, Brazil Issues Mush for Commitments, and the Silly Show Continues at COP29

Guest Post by Craig Rucker of CFact.

Day three at the COP meeting in Azerbaijan saw a pair of Latin American nations take center stage.

First, it was Brazil, which put forward a climate action plan that outlines how it intends to cut its carbon emissions by 2035. Under the Paris Agreement, each nation is supposed to update their climate commitments, dubbed Nationally-Determined Contributions (NDCs), every five years. Call it a homework assignment by the UN school masters. Up to this point, however, few have done so and have only submitted plans to 2030. Technically speaking, they have until next year to turn them in, but it is not entirely sure what will be the consequences if they don’t. Our guess … detention?

CFACT staff took a brief look at the plan from Brazil’s leftist government, and let’s just say we were “underwhelmed”. In its first two guiding principles, the document only offers vague generalities, such as:

1. promoting sustainable development in its many dimensions, considering strategic sectors and themes for the country, with a view to reducing inequalities and to a just transition;

2. promoting climate justice based on the dimensions of gender, race, ethnicity, age, social class and other factors that influence vulnerability;

Guided by principles like these, Brazil claims it is setting up for itself new targets to slash emissions 67% by 2035 (As a sidenote, Brazil had previously set a target of a 53% reduction by 2030). More specifically, the country’s leaders claim Brazil will reach these lofty goals by pimping more biofuel use, pledging to provide more government funding for rainforest protection, “reducing dependence on individual transportation”, and working harder to fight racism and sexism.

Ummm, Right. All this seems unlikely to us as there’s not much in it about reining in Brazil’s lucrative offshore drilling activity. Indeed, the country owns the largest recoverable ultra-deep oil reserves in the world, with 97.6% of Brazil’s oil production produced offshore. Bottom line: without hacking and killing their energy sector like Britain’s Starmer pledged to do to his country yesterday, this document is all gobbly-gook.

Apparently, we’re alone in our assessment.

“COP 30 host Brazil has delivered an NDC that falls short of the Paris Agreement’s Article 4 on mitigation, which states that ‘each successive NDC will represent a progression beyond the previous one and reflect the highest possible ambition’, and instead reflects a more moderate pace. More is needed from a country that must show leadership as the COP30 President in 2025”, said Jess Beagley, Policy Lead at the Global Climate and Health Alliance.

Regarding the other big news here at COP 29, Argentina has reportedly withdrawn its delegation from COP 29. The Spanish media Climatica was first to grab hold of the story. It reported that the withdrawal was ordered by Argentinian President Javier Milei, who took charge of the country in November last year. It is also likely tied to Milei’s discussion with Trump he had just the day before he made this unprecedented decision, as well as his intention to draw closer to the incoming Administration.

Another media outlet, The Indian Express, mentioned this added thing as well:

“The Argentinians pulling out, just three days after the two-week conference began, coupled with Milei’s known admiration for Trump, triggered rumours that the country was considering withdrawing itself from the Paris Agreement. However, there was no immediate indication of any such move.”

Is this cause for celebration? Time will tell. But between the statement by the Azerbaijani President calling fossil fuels a “Gift from God” yesterday, and the Argentinian President ordering the withdrawal his delegation today, it seems that time may be coming to put a few bottles of bubbly on ice.

Craig Rucker is a co-founder of CFACT and currently serves as its president. Widely heralded as a leader in the free market environmental, think tank community in Washington, D.C.,

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