The Cumulative Impacts of Wind Turbines to the Very Endangered North Atlantic Right Whales Are Being Ignored

Guest Post by Roger Caiazza of Pragmatic Environmentalist of New York.

On October 26, 2024, Charles Rotter mentioned the availability of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) final Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) for the offshore wind development in the New York Bight.  I have long complained that New York State has failed to consider the cumulative environmental impacts of New York’s offshore wind plans, so I reviewed the PEIS to see whehter BOEM addressed the problem.

Overview and Background

The Climate Act established a New York “Net Zero” target (85% reduction in GHG emissions and 15% offset of emissions) by 2050.  It includes an interim 2030 reduction target of a 40% reduction by 2030. Two targets address the electric sector: 70% of the electricity must come from renewable energy by 2030 and all electricity must be generated by “zero-emissions” resources by 2040. The Climate Action Council (CAC) was responsible for preparing the Scoping Plan that outlined how to “achieve the State’s bold clean energy and climate agenda.” 

The Integration Analysis prepared by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) and its consultants quantifies the impact of the electrification strategies.  That material was used to develop the Draft Scoping Plan outline of strategies.  After a year-long review, the Scoping Plan was finalized at the end of 2022.  Since then, the State has been trying to implement the Scoping Plan recommendations through regulations, proceedings, and legislation. 

The Integration Analysis Technical Supplement Appendix G Annex 2: Key Drivers and Outputs spreadsheet describes the projected resources necessary to implement the Climate Act targets.  The projections dated September 21, 2022, estimate that in 2030 New York State offshore wind will comprise 8.0% of the capacity (6,200 MW) and 15.3% of the energy production (GWh) and the percentages will increase to 12.0% of the capacity (13,484 MW) and 22.2% of the energy production in 2040.  Clearly the Scoping Plan is counting on offshore wind to be a major contributor to the future electric system.

In my Draft Scoping Plan comments I noted that on September 17, 2020 the Final Supplemental Generic Environmental Impact Statement (SGEIS) for the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act was released.  It covered the “environmental impacts of the offshore wind and distributed solar procurement goals, and the estimate of utility-scale solar capacity required to meet the meet the 70 by 30 goal” based on the resources estimated necessary at that time.  The expected total offshore wind capacity considered was 9,000 MW.  This is much less than the Integration Analysis 2050 expected capacity of 16,905 MW.

New York Bight Offshore Wind Projections

Unfortunately, the scope of this document is limited and does not address cumulative impacts from all the projects expected.  The Executive Summary states:

This Final Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) assesses the potential biological, socioeconomic, physical, and cultural impacts that could result from development activities for six commercial wind energy leases in an area offshore New Jersey and New York known as the New York Bight (NY Bight), as well as the change in those impacts with avoidance, minimization, mitigation, and monitoring (AMMM) measures.

In PEIS Appendix D: Planned Activities Scenario there is a table that describes offshore wind project construction schedules.  It lists the number of foundations expected from Massachusetts to Delaware which is the same thing as estimating the number of turbines.  document describes the ongoing and planned activities that could occur in the New York Bight. 

Table D-2 shows that 795 wind turbine foundations are expected by the end of 2026 for existing and ongoing projects.  Planned projects along the mid-Atlantic coast bring the total to 3,630 wind turbines by the end of 2029.  However, the PEIS only considers the 1,125 foundations/wind turbines in the New York Bight.

The Executive Summary explains that:

The PEIS assesses the potential biological, socioeconomic, physical, and cultural impacts that could result from development activities for six commercial wind energy leases in an area offshore New Jersey and New York known as the New York Bight (NY Bight), as well as the change in those impacts with avoidance, minimization, mitigation, and monitoring (AMMM) measures. The six commercial leases analyzed in this Final PEIS are OCS-A 0537, 0538, 0539, 0541, 0542, and 0544 (hereafter referred to as the NY Bight leases or NY Bight lease areas), totaling over 488,000 acres (197,486 hectares) (Figure ES-1), which were issued by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) on May 1, 2022.

I conclude that the PEIS does not address the cumulative impacts of all future potential offshore wind development.

Goal of PEIS

It turns out that the PEIS was not intended to address cumulative impacts.  The Executive Summary describes the goals of the analysis:

BOEM has prepared this Final PEIS to (1) identify and analyze AMMM measures that could avoid, minimize, mitigate, and monitor impacts on resources in the six NY Bight lease areas and (2) focus future project-specific environmental analyses. This Final PEIS evaluates the potential impacts from anticipated wind energy development within the NY Bight lease areas to inform BOEM in identifying AMMM measures that BOEM may require as conditions of approval for activities proposed by lessees in Construction and Operation Plans (COPs). This Final PEIS will also facilitate the timely review of COPs submitted for the NY Bight lease areas by focusing the project-specific environmental analysis on project impacts not considered in the PEIS or those impacts that warrant further consideration. The project-specific analyses will occur after this PEIS is issued and may tier from or incorporate by reference this PEIS and could also incorporate revised, additional, or different AMMM measures as needed. This PEIS does not, by itself, impose any mitigation measures on future COPs, and instead depends on subsequent COP-specific environmental analysis. This PEIS is therefore not the consummation of the agency’s decision-making for these measures as applied to specific COPs.

The Executive Summary explains that the document describes expected issues and potential impacts to identify the AMMM measures that can mitigate impacts when the COPs are proposed.  BPEM chose this subset of projects because they are close to each other and their expected development times are similar.  They indicate that this will enable them to focus on site-specific issues for future project applications.  It describes four objectives:

• Analyzing potential impacts if development is authorized in the six NY Bight lease areas.

• Analyzing AMMM measures for the six NY Bight lease areas.

• Analyzing focused, regional cumulative effects.

• Tiering of project-specific environmental analyses.

Impacts Summary

Table ES-2 summarizes and compares impacts among alternatives that includes an assessment of cumulative impacts for different alternatives.  The following excerpt from the table lists the impacts to marine mammals.  Note that the impacts to North Atlantic Right Whales (NARW) all suggest that major impacts are possible for all the alternatives in the New York Bight.  The PEIS only considers about a third of the wind turbines expected by 2030.

North Atlantic Right Whale

Last spring Bud’s Offshore Energy (BOE) “Energy Production, Safety, Pollution Prevention, and More” website reviewed the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Fisheries North Atlantic Right Whale and Offshore Wind Strategy.  His key takeaways:

The document effectively summarizes the dire state of the North Atlantic Right Whale.

• The BOEM/NOAA strategy is to monitor and further assess the impacts.

• The need for mitigation will be determined through collaborative processes.

• This industry-friendly strategy contrasts sharply with the restrictive operating requirements proposed for the more speculative Rice’s whale expanded area in the Gulf of Mexico.

He describes the status of the Right Whales:

NARW status (pages 7-14):

• Roughly 237 NARWs have died since the population peaked at 481 in 2011, exceeding the potential biological removal (PBR) level on average by more than 40 times for the past 5 years (Pace III et al. 2021).

• Human-caused mortality is so high that no adult NARW has been confirmed to have died from natural causes in several decades (Hayes et al. 2023).

• Most NARWs have a low probability of surviving past 40 years even though the NARW can live up to a century.

• There were no first-time mothers in 2022.

• About 42% of the population is known to be in reduced health (Hamilton et al. 2021)

• A NASEM study confirmed that offshore wind has the potential to alter local and regional hydrodynamics

• “Effects to NARWs could result from stressors generated from a single project; there is potential for these effects to be compounded by exposure to multiple projects.” (p. 14)

The following map shows where the whales are expected in March.  Note that the migration route will run the gauntlet of all the wind turbine facilities expected.

Conclusion

The PEIS scope was only intended to address Construction and Operation Plans for the New York Bight.  Given that BOEM expects a total of 3,630 wind turbine foundations by 20230 and only 1,125 are expected in the New York Bight, it is notable that the PEIS acknowledged that major impacts from offshore wind development to the NARW are possible for all alternatives.

Unfortunately, the cumulative impacts of all the wind turbines to the critically endangered NARW are being ignored.  I cannot imagine any scenario where a species this stressed will survive when thousands of massive wind turbines are built across the migration routes. 

#Caiazza #NorthAtlanticRightWhale #BOEM #Cllimate #OffshoreWind

Roger Caiazza blogs on New York energy and environmental issues at Pragmatic Environmentalist of New York.  This post represents his opinion alone and not the opinion of his previous employers or any other company with which he has been associated. Roger has followed the Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act (Climate Act) since it was first proposed, submitted comments on the Climate Act implementation plan, and has written over 450 articles about New York’s net-zero transition.