I put a post a few weeks ago that summarized some research and an extremely well written post by Javier Vinós on Judith Curry’s site. It was titled “How We Know That the Sun Changes the Climate.” It was the first of a series and labelled “Part I: The Past.” Now “Part II: The Present” Is up on her site. Rather than summarize, I decided to let the author, relate the material through a video. It’s about 16 minutes and well worth watching, even if some of it is highly technical:
And, here is the printed version of this scientist’s conclusions:
None of what you have just read is reflected in the IPCC reports, which ignores the large amount of evidence showing that the Sun’s effect on climate is not limited to a small change in energy. And none of this is in the climate models.
To recapitulate, we have seen that the changes caused by the Sun on the surface have inverse dynamic patterns to those of the stratosphere, which is the same fingerprint at CO2-driven warming.
We have seen that the Sun causes temperature changes in the ocean far greater than expected, and that it influences ENSO, a major global climate phenomenon. We have seen that the Sun regulates the strength of the polar vortex, which affects the frequency of very cold winters in much of the Northern Hemisphere, and we have seen that it alters the rotation of the planet.
None of this can be explained by a 0.1% change in the energy reaching the planet’s surface from solar minimum to solar maximum. There is something else. Something that has been studied since 1987 that can explain these effects. The IPCC knows about it and mentions it in its 5th report, but is unwilling or unable to understand its global significance.
It can be argued that the effects of solar activity on climate that we have analyzed are periodic. Solar activity varies cyclically every 11 years, El Niño gives way to La Niña, the vortex changes its strength every winter, and the rotation of the planet returns to what it was.
However, there are two things indicating that there is a much stronger long-term effect, and therefore that solar activity has a cumulative effect on climate that we do not yet understand well.
One is that, as we have seen, the winter temperature trends in the Northern Hemisphere change over decades with solar activity, causing a warming in the Arctic and a cooling in North America and Eurasia during the winter since the late 1990s, which has been going on for 25 years now because of the low solar activity that we have had in the 21st century.
The other is that, as we saw in the first part, low activity for more than a century in the past was the cause of some of the major climate changes of the Holocene.
I have spent the last 10 years trying to understand how climate changes naturally, without preconceived ideas, by examining a huge amount of information and data.
The evidence has led me to an alternative theory of climate change to that of the IPCC. It is not based on changes in solar activity, but, to my surprise, it explains them.
There is much more to climate than the Sun, but the conclusion is that the 20th century solar maximum has been a major contributor to recent warming. And it is not lost on me that this means that controlling our emissions, which has become the main goal of the UN and the Western world, may not have much effect on future climate.
Pretty fascinating stuff!
#Sun #SolarActivity #ClimateCrisis #CO2 #ClimateChange #ClimateEmergency
The elliptical orbit, tilted axis, 30% albedo and LoT run the atmospheric heat engine not CO2.
Judith Curry and Climate Etc has been an important force for energy and environmental sanity. Her scholarship and interviews have great sources for allies.